Easy Tycoon

Chapter 857 David's Analysis

The reason why Yang Jing didn't start getting involved with Apple in the 80s was because he was waiting for this opportunity.

In fact, from the establishment of Apple until later generations, this company became the world's first company with a market value exceeding one trillion US dollars. The best time to get involved in this company is that the company can obtain angel round investment at the beginning of its establishment, and the other It was the second half of 1996.

But Joe’s strength is well known. Even on April 1976, 4, the 1-year-old hippie founded Apple together with Hewlett-Packard engineer Steve Wozniak and Ron Wayne, who used to be in the slot machine business. At that time, he never thought about doing angel round financing.

At the beginning of his business, Mr. Qiao attached great importance to the shares in his hands, let alone when he was kicked out of Apple and wandered outside for more than ten years. After seeing the real bloody and ruthless capital, he returned to Apple again. Willing to introduce Wall Street capital to Apple.

In fact, if he had not been kicked out of Apple, but had been the boss of Apple all the time, with his business genius and advanced design concept, there might not be a computer brand like Dell.

Failure is not terrible, what is terrible is that after failure, you don't know how to work hard again!
Jobs is obviously not such a person. The Lisa database and Apple Iie may have really brought a lot of losses to Apple, but if Apple’s shareholders can insist on believing in this genius, then Jobs will never let people who believe in him Disappointed, just like those things he did after returning to Apple.

To use a common saying to describe Jobs, it is that this guy is like a flawless diamond, even if it has been dusty, but his bright light cannot be suppressed after all.

If Apple's shareholders could trust Qiao Gang more, perhaps Qiao Gang would launch personal PCs and laptops with better appearance and performance in the 80s, thus becoming the leader in the industry again.Who can tell such a thing?But judging from Joe's future performance, if he hadn't left Apple in the first place, it was very likely that he would have done such a thing.

At that time, Dell, HP, and even IBM are all likely to be suppressed by Apple in terms of personal PCs.

But that's all hypothetical.If you want to get involved with Apple at the least cost, the second half of 1996 is the best time.

Yang Jing entrusted Henry to do this matter. Considering Henry's talent in this area, he will definitely be able to do this matter impeccably.

At such a precarious time, the equity changes in the hands of a dozen or dozens of small shareholders in Apple will never attract the attention of others.

After exhorting Henry, Yang Jing called David Anderson in again.

"David, what do you think about the recent economic situation in Southeast Asia, Japan and South Korea?" Yang Jing poured David a cup of coffee himself, and then sat opposite him.

At this time, David Anderson is already an old man in his sixties. Perhaps it is because he has grown older, and he has had too many successes in the past ten years. At this time, his IQ can no longer be seen at all. High and low EQ, now David Anderson looks like a very wise financial tycoon.

Yang Jing still remembers the first time he met David more than ten years ago. At that time, David, who was 45 and six years old, seemed to be a very old-fashioned guy.It is said that David, who has black blood, should be more lively, but the fact is just the opposite.

In the following operations, although David showed an unparalleled investment genius, he was really not very good in dealing with people.If it weren't for Yang Jing, Old Mike and Henry who were very protective of him, maybe he would have left KY Investment Fund long ago.

However, the environment can change a person's character. This sentence is not nonsense, but it does have some truth.At least this sentence is vividly reflected in David.

As David began to take charge of Pacific Capital and led Pacific Capital to kill the Quartet in the Japanese market, David has really changed a lot at this time.

"Thank you." David thanked him first, and then asked: "Boss, I don't know what aspect you are mainly referring to? If I tell you everything, I'm afraid we'll talk about it tonight." Not finished."

Yang Jing waved his hand with a smile, "David, it's just the two of us here, you can say what you think. Actually, I also have some judgments on the recent economic situation in Southeast Asia, Japan and South Korea, so I want to hear I will listen to your opinion so that I can make a final decision."

David's IQ is very high, and Yang Jing even suspects that this guy's IQ is higher than his own.So, when he heard Yang Jing's words, he immediately asked in surprise: "Boss, are you planning to attack Southeast Asia?"

"Yeah." Yang Jing nodded, "In the past two years, I have discovered some huge financial loopholes through research on the development of Southeast Asian countries. I think, since I can discover these loopholes, then those guys on Wall Street must be able to discover them too. , So, I just want to ask your opinion, if we agree, then we can make a fortune in Southeast Asia. Well, maybe we can cut off a big piece of meat in Japan and South Korea."

David rubbed his hands excitedly, "Boss, in fact, what you said is wrong, we actually belong to the group of Wall Street guys. Look, the place we are sitting now is a little far away from Wall Street , although the KY investment fund is now deeply hidden under the water, but we are out-and-out Wall Street giants!"

Yang Jing was taken aback by these words, and then shook his head with a wry smile.

This guy David is right. In 1996, there were about [-] trillion US dollars of international hot money in the world, but the funds owned by KY Investment Fund accounted for more than one-tenth of this huge international hot money. Many, definitely the biggest giant crocodile on Wall Street!

"Boss, in fact, my judgment is the same as yours. Although several countries in Southeast Asia have developed rapidly in recent years, there are many and very large loopholes. Don't look at the Four Tigers in East Asia now, but they are all Despite the prosperity on the surface, the Southeast Asian countries represented by the so-called Four Tigers have fatal loopholes in themselves and their domestic financial systems.”

After a pause, David began to talk eloquently.

"Actually, not only Southeast Asian countries, almost all countries in East Asia except China have loopholes of one kind or another. This is caused by the post-war Asian economic situation. Like Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Bay Island, and Hong Kong Island Such countries and regions are all export-oriented economies, and they are very dependent on the world market. As long as the Asian economy falters, it will inevitably affect the whole body.”

"First of all, the 'export substitution' model is an important reason for the economic success of many Asian countries. The so-called Four Tigers in Asia are typical representatives of this economic model. But this model also has three shortcomings: First, when When the economy develops to a certain stage, production costs will increase and exports will be suppressed, causing imbalances in the balance of payments of these countries; second, when this export-oriented strategy becomes the development strategy of many countries, it will form a mutual relationship among them. Squeeze; third, stepwise progress of products is a necessary condition for continuing to implement export substitution, and the advantage of cheap resources alone cannot maintain competitiveness. After achieving rapid growth, these Asian countries have not solved the above problems. "

"Moreover, most of these countries are developing countries, and maintaining a relatively high economic growth rate is the common aspiration of developing countries. It's just that when the conditions for high-speed growth become insufficient, in order to continue to maintain the speed, these countries have to turn to Relying on foreign debt to maintain economic growth. However, due to the unsatisfactory economic development, some Asian countries have not been able to repay their debts since the past two years. In Southeast Asian countries, the real estate bubbles were exchanged for bad debts and bad debts of bank loans; As for South Korea, because it is too easy for large companies to obtain funds from banks, once the company's situation is not good, the non-performing assets will immediately expand. The existence of a large number of non-performing assets has in turn affected the confidence of investors. This is the overdraft economy. Growth and inflation of non-performing assets! This is an extremely dangerous thing!"

"However, the economic and market systems in these countries are immature. On the one hand, the government interferes too much in resource allocation, especially in the loan investment and projects of the financial system; on the other hand, the financial system, especially the regulatory system, is not perfect. This will lead to further expansion of those dangers, which will eventually be the straw that breaks the camel's back."

Once David Anderson enters his own mode, it will definitely hit the nail on the head.

Yang Jing nodded slightly and said, "David, what do you mean that there are indeed signs of a huge crisis hidden in Southeast Asian countries?"

"That's right, I'm not the only one who sees it. As you said just now, many people on Wall Street see it."

David took a sip of coffee to moisten his throat, and then said: "For example, when I had dinner with Charles Roberts of Morgan Stanley two months ago, he also mentioned this matter. He said , among Southeast Asian countries, the current situation in Thailand is the most dangerous. Countries like Thailand, the foreign exchange policy they are currently pursuing is simply playing with fire. In order to attract foreign investment, these countries maintain a fixed exchange rate on the one hand, and on the other hand Expanding financial liberalization is basically two contradictory policies. Because in order to maintain their domestic fixed exchange rate system, these countries must use foreign exchange reserves to make up for deficits for a long time, which will inevitably lead to an increase in foreign debt. In this way Under such circumstances, these countries will inevitably have excessive short-term debts. In this case, once the outflow of foreign capital exceeds the inflow of foreign capital, and the country's foreign exchange reserves are not enough to make up for the shortage, then the country's currency depreciation will be It's inevitable."

"Charles and I have the same judgment. Thailand is a typical representative of this kind of contradictory financial policy. Thailand's own financial system is not perfect, but this country canceled its financial system in 1992 before its own financial system was straightened out. The control of the capital market makes the flow of short-term funds unimpeded, and a large amount of international hot money can take advantage of the opportunity to pour into Thailand."

"Tianquan international hot money has entered the Thai financial market. On the surface, it seems that Thailand's economy will prosper immediately, but it also buried a big guy comparable to a nuclear bomb. Once the time is right, then this will be buried in the Thai financial market." The nuclear bomb in Thailand's financial sector is bound to be detonated. At that time, the financial system in Thailand must be killed, and the international hot money can slowly want to have a gluttonous feast!"

Yang Jing also knew about the Charles Roberts that David mentioned. This guy also worked for Goldman Sachs before, and he had a very good personal relationship with David.It was only later that this guy moved from Goldman Sachs to Morgan Stanley, but the two still maintain a good friendship.Moreover, David was planning to poach Charles, and Yang Jing also agreed to this matter.

"Well, David, your judgment is almost the same as mine. That is to say, both of us, including Charles, believe that a financial crisis is about to break out in Southeast Asian countries. So David, are you sure that you will make a decision this time? Kill the Quartet again in the crisis?"

"Haha, BOSS, this is my favorite job! The Japanese market has become a stagnant pool, and it can no longer excite me. My big sword is already hungry and thirsty."

(End of this chapter)